What happened last time? › Crypto
What happens when Ether hits an all-time high?
It has happened 9 times since 2015. A year after it began, the S&P 500 was up 8 of 9 times, with a median move of +16.5%. On an ordinary day in the same years the median was +14.8%, up 86% of the time.
Ether: % below its all-time high above -0.01. Not true on 2026-09-25.
What came next
| 1 month later | 1 year later | 3 years later | |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +2.8% 67% up · n 9 · normal +1.6% | +16.5% 89% up · n 9 · normal +14.8% | +33.3% 100% up · n 8 · normal +39.3% |
| Gold | +2.3% 67% up · n 9 · normal +0.6% | +9.3% 67% up · n 9 · normal +11.0% | +22.4% 100% up · n 8 · normal +35.7% |
| Oil | +0.1% 56% up · n 9 · normal +1.0% | +26.6% 78% up · n 9 · normal +2.4% | +31.6% 63% up · n 8 · normal +17.2% |
| 10-year yield (pts) | -0.04 pts 33% up · n 9 · normal +0.01 pts | +0.48 pts 89% up · n 9 · normal +0.41 pts | +0.71 pts 75% up · n 8 · normal +0.72 pts |
| Inflation, CPI y/y (pts) | +0.21 pts 89% up · n 9 · normal +0.04 pts | +1.07 pts 89% up · n 9 · normal -0.02 pts | +1.03 pts 63% up · n 8 · normal +0.58 pts |
| Unemployment rate (pts) | -0.20 pts 11% up · n 9 · normal 0.00 pts | -0.60 pts 0% up · n 9 · normal -0.20 pts | -1.30 pts 13% up · n 8 · normal 0.00 pts |
Median move after each episode began, how often it rose, and how many episodes had data. "Normal" is the same move from any trading day in the same years.
Every time it happened
- 2025-08-22 · true for 1 trading day · S&P 500 a year later: +18.7%
- 2021-10-25 · true for 6 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: -15.5%
- 2021-04-01 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +13.1%
- 2021-02-02 · true for 10 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +19.9%
- 2017-11-24 · true for 13 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +1.2%
- 2017-03-13 · true for 20 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.5%
- 2016-05-19 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +16.7%
- 2016-01-25 · true for 14 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +21.5%
- 2015-08-11 · true for 4 trading days · S&P 500 a year later: +4.4%
- 9 separate episodes: a new one starts after 30 days without a match, so one long selloff counts once.
- Few episodes: read the ranges and the interval, not just the median.
- Try enough situations and one will look like an edge by chance.
- Macro numbers are as published at the time. Stocks include companies that later died.
- How these numbers are made.
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